Page 31 - 期货和衍生品行业监管动态（2026年1月）

期货和衍生品行业监管动态

在地缘经济格局分化进程加快、地缘政治不确定性持续存在的背景下，欧洲

央行与欧洲系统性风险委员会强调，必须强化并统一数据体系，并开展配套的情

景分析，以维护金融稳定并提升经济韧性。本报告的研究结论有助于政策制定者

与金融机构更精准地识别、评估地缘政治风险对金融行业的影响，为宏观审慎政

策的制定与调整提供参考依据。

ECB and ESRB Issue Joint Report Analysing Financial Stability Risks from

Geoeconomic Fragmentation (2026/1/22)

 Geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitical risk have become key sources

of macro-financial uncertainty, which can affect financial stability

 Geopolitical shocks can amplify financial stress and dampen economic

growth

 Report sets out new monitoring framework integrating geopolitical

indicators into financial stability analysis

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Systemic Risk Board

(ESRB) today published a joint report entitled “Financial stability risks from

geoeconomic fragmentation” with technical annex, which examines how rising
geopolitical risks and heightened uncertainty can affect financial stability in the euro

area and across the European Union. The report identifies the key transmission

channels through which geopolitical shocks can propagate to the financial system.

The following findings indicate that geopolitical shocks and policy uncertainty

tend to lead to tighter financial conditions, financial market stress, increased risk

premia and reduced loan growth.

 Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty have risen markedly since the

mid‑2010s, with notable increases in 2024 and 2025. At the same time,

financial market volatility has remained contained or short-lived.

 Estimates suggest that geopolitical risks lower expected growth outcomes,

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