Page 15 - 期货和衍生品行业监管动态（2025年3月刊）

期货和衍生品行业监管动态

tariffs as the top factor in their outlook for trading activity, followed by the adoption

of a more business-friendly approach to regulation.

“It’s clear that economics is taking a back seat to politics in terms of what will

drive the derivatives markets in the next few years,” said Walt Lukken, FIA’s

president and chief executive officer. “The political outcomes from last year’s

elections, combined with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, are creating a lot of

uncertainty in the markets. We will likely see an increase in the trading of derivatives

as market participants balance their risks and adjust their expectations.”

The survey also asked respondents for their views on which asset class had the

greatest potential for growth in 2025 and 2026. Commodities ranked the highest,

followed closely by interest rates and credit. In terms of regions, survey respondents

ranked India and the Middle East as having the highest growth potential outside the

core markets of Europe and North America.

Market structure and technology

The central clearing mandate for the US Treasury securities market led the

market structure issues going into 2025. Although not directly related to derivatives

trading or clearing, many firms involved in derivatives markets will be subject to this

mandate. And many of the firms that provide clearing services for derivatives are

weighing the business opportunities created by the mandate.

The survey asked respondents to draw on their knowledge of clearing to answer

two questions related to the Treasury clearing mandate. First, the survey asked for

feedback on the pros and cons of having more than one clearinghouse for cash

Treasuries and repos. More than half of the survey respondents have a positive view

on competition among clearinghouses, and less than 10% take the opposing view.

Second, the survey asked which attributes are the most important in determining

which clearinghouse to use. The three top choices were cross-margining, margin

methodology and balance sheet treatment.

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